New York – June 23, 2025
By, Issam Khoury
Just hours before the massacre at St. Elias Church in Damascus, the United Nations issued a new warning about Syria’s fragility. This was not a routine statement, but a stark depiction of a country torn apart by internal divisions and regional turbulence. Investigative journalist Issam Khoury analyzed these developments, asking: Can Syria withstand regional shifts and the repercussions of the Iranian–Israeli war?
Syria as a Fragile State
According to UN reports, Syria today is classified among fragile states. More than three-quarters of the population rely on humanitarian aid, while over 60% of hospitals are out of service. These figures reveal not only the collapse of infrastructure but also the erosion of state capacity to provide even the most basic needs.
Regional Shifts: The Toughest Test
This internal crisis coincides with dangerous regional dynamics, most notably the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. Syria has ceased to be merely a local battleground; it has become an arena of overlapping regional interests, making any stability precarious and short-lived.
Khoury poses a central question: Is it possible to speak of logical stability in Syria?
The answer remains complex:
- Domestically, the scale of economic and humanitarian devastation makes quick solutions nearly impossible.
- Regionally, the Iran–Israel war exacerbates Syria’s fragility, leaving it more a victim of external pressures than an autonomous actor.
- Internationally, the absence of genuine consensus among global powers on Syria’s future locks the country in a cycle of uncertainty.
Between the Warning and the Massacre
Tragically, the UN warning was followed almost immediately by the massacre at St. Elias Church—a grim reminder that fragility is not only reflected in economic or health indicators, but also in the absence of security and social stability.
Syria stands at a crossroads: either remain a fragile state beset by internal collapse and regional pressures, or embark on a path of genuine reform to rebuild institutions and place citizens at the heart of priorities. Yet without ending proxy wars on its soil and securing coherent international support, the UN’s warning may be just another alarm bell in a long chain of unheeded alerts.
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